Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15b9…f86e crypto 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%108W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$382
14 days−$297
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$456
world 0% −$20
tech 0% −$9
politics 0% +$192
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -10.3% -18.8% 49% 44% -11.7%
≤30d 217 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 46% -11.2%
≤90d 217 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 46% -11.2%
all 217 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 46% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 39% -19.7%
15% -30.8% 28% -27.5%
20% -37.6% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$48 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses108 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)217 / 217
History coverage8d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 217 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +159%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$20 -73%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$33 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$13 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $17 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $8 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 581 history records