Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15b9…8fca other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$1
other 30% −$5
world 27% −$5
finance 5% −$1
tech 5% +$6
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -10.7%
all 48 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage327d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $55 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $52 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $22 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $57 −$4 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $63 −$5 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 19 $7 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $43 +$1 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $56 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $55 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $37 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $37 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $14 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $56 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $11 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $16 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $29 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $5 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $51 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $22 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $22 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $53 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $57 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $3 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $17 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records