Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15ba…f30d other 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,641 (+2%) realized +$1,641 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%343W / 405L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$788
7 days+$66
14 days+$636
30 days+$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$788
other 46% +$1,336
crypto 1% +$152
world 0% −$337
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.7% -11.0% 40% 35% -8.1%
≤30d 183 +8.5% -1.8% 44% 42% -3.5%
≤90d 366 -0.6% -10.0% 42% 40% -17.2%
all 748 +2.3% -7.4% 46% 43% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 43% -6.8%
10% -16.3% 42% -15.8%
15% -24.4% 40% -23.9%
20% -31.8% 37% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$59 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized+$1,641
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses343 / 405
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions7
Markets (closed)748 / 755
History coverage598d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 58¢ 64¢ $173 $194 +$21 (+12%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 56¢ $147 $166 +$20 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $134 +$30 (+29%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 38¢ $111 $116 +$4 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $15 −$45 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $332 +$468 +141%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $125 −$108 -86%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $163 −$160 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $437 +$563 +129%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $112 +$88 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $183 −$180 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $109 −$108 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $146 +$154 +105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $146 +$84 +57%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $93 −$64 -69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$129 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $89 −$87 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $125 −$116 -92%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $259 −$42 -16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $173 +$127 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $149 −$111 -75%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $44 −$1 -2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $87 +$33 +38%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $545 +$9 +2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $89 −$21 -23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $165 −$117 -71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 −$57 -93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $282 −$251 -89%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $241 +$24 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 +$32 +186%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $39 +$51 +133%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $9 +$61 +650%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $110 +$390 +354%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $233 +$117 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$64 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $243 +$257 +106%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $279 −$275 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $99 +$72 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $123 +$77 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 −$75 -87%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $242 −$213 -88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $85 −$84 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $113 −$112 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $130 −$129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $113 2m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $149 13m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $57 16m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $117 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $16 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 45¢ $91 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 40¢ $81 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $143 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 19h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $163 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $73 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 55¢ $279 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $158 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $183 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $111 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $146 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $119 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $41 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $146 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $79 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $131 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Haiti $0 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti $10 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $216 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.90 · official $653.90 · 1860 history records