trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -39.9% | -45.6% | 40% | 20% | -69.9% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 75% | 50% | -27.1% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 82% | 47% | -23.4% |
| all | 17 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 82% | 47% | -23.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.8% | 47% | -23.4% |
| 10% | -13.0% | 29% | -30.7% |
| 15% | -21.4% | 24% | -37.4% |
| 20% | -29.1% | 6% | -43.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 65¢ | 72¢ | $457 | $505 | +$48 (+11%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 54¢ | 55¢ | $216 | $218 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | Yes | 81¢ | 88¢ | $184 | $198 | +$15 (+8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Jun 17 | $799 | +$53 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $4,397 | −$3,057 | -70% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $3,593 | −$2,341 | -65% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 13 | $396 | +$52 | +13% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1,665 | −$413 | -25% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 09 | $391 | +$5 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $1,936 | +$929 | +48% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 05 | $956 | +$51 | +5% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | Jun 04 | $190 | +$89 | +47% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $672 | +$514 | +76% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,788 | +$785 | +44% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $863 | +$186 | +22% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 16 | $218 | +$17 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 16 | $521 | +$180 | +34% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 14 | $581 | +$112 | +19% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | May 12 | $216 | +$3 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 07 | $374 | +$2 | +1% |