Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15bd…e50d sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized +$107 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%35W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$29
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$222
sports 38% −$134
crypto 8% +$1
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +16.4% +5.3% 75% 50% +0.4%
≤90d 36 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 42% -6.9%
all 47 -1.3% -10.7% 74% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 38% -8.6%
10% -19.2% 26% -17.3%
15% -27.0% 19% -25.3%
20% -34.2% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$47 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses35 / 12
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage98d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $168 $164 −$4 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 97¢ 97¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +144%
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 06 $351 +$11 +3%
Will GIANTX win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 01 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $77 +$54 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $59 +$42 +70%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? May 29 $44 −$43 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Fnatic win LEC 2026 Spring? May 15 $225 +$5 +2%
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 01 $268 +$122 +46%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 27 $124 +$23 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $210 +$40 +19%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $42 +$8 +20%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $100 +$50 +50%
MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $2 +$1 +47%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 23 $72 +$27 +37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $79 +$21 +27%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 21 $1 $0 +25%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $65 +$35 +54%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $84 +$16 +19%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $68 −$2 -3%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $94 +$6 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 09 $146 −$146 -100%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 08 $39 −$10 -26%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $548 +$22 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 01 $800 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Apr 01 $49 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 01 $295 +$1 +0%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $363 +$17 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 01 $700 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 26 $101 −$7 -7%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 26 $220 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 26 $893 +$20 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $193 −$193 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $100 +$19 +19%
Will LYON win First Stand 2026? Mar 21 $200 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $319 +$11 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Team Secret Whales win First Stand 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 17 $77 −$1 -1%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 17 $342 +$37 +11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $81 +$19 +24%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 11d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 88¢ $88 15d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 88¢ $88 15d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $18 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 24d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 24d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $3 24d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 43¢ $37 25d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $60 25d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $2 28d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $1 32d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $20 35d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $3 35d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $10 35d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $7 35d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $10 35d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $7 36d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL No 90¢ $90 38d
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 39d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY No 84¢ $73 42d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY No 84¢ $11 42d
Will Fnatic win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY No 98¢ $30 49d
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 52d
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 52d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY No 88¢ $88 54d
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY No 89¢ $26 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.