Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x15bd…1457 other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,764 (-8%) realized −$1,764 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$564per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$2,205
sports 6% −$332
economics 1% +$97
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.5% -4.6% 57% 57% -1.8%
≤30d 7 +5.5% -4.6% 57% 57% -1.8%
≤90d 23 -22.2% -29.6% 39% 39% -44.6%
all 39 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 54% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 54% -19.7%
10% -17.9% 44% -27.4%
15% -25.8% 31% -34.4%
20% -33.1% 21% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$890) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$434 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage152d
Avg bet$564
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $379 −$303 -80%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $303 +$51 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $683 −$356 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $413 +$271 +66%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $912 +$265 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $597 +$361 +60%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 24 $543 −$543 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $1,062 −$1,046 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $998 −$754 -76%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $148 +$43 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $113 +$223 +196%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $79 +$34 +43%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $171 −$37 -22%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $348 −$179 -52%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1,115 +$244 +22%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $500 +$117 +24%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-30? Apr 11 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Apr 11 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 11 $250 −$84 -34%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $500 −$468 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $50 +$78 +158%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $20 +$25 +126%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $2,300 −$1,230 -54%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $1,030 +$161 +16%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $690 −$425 -62%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $2,190 +$756 +34%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $500 +$245 +49%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $500 +$146 +29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $890 +$130 +15%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $1,246 +$1,814 +146%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $194 +$84 +44%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $340 +$125 +37%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $200 +$103 +52%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $200 −$76 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 15¢ $76 22m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $379 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $354 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 35¢ $327 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $683 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 34¢ $305 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 42¢ $378 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $411 5h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $86 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,177 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $87 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $912 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $957 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $597 5d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 57d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,062 66d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $305 71d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $238 71d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $244 71d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $998 71d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $191 75d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $88 75d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 74¢ $97 75d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $148 75d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $150 75d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $113 76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 69¢ $79 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records