Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x15c2…345a crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$587 (+19%) realized +$587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$892
7 days+$952
14 days+$952
30 days+$952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$662
crypto 38% +$246
sports 19% −$86
politics 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.6% -2.6% 47% 47% +23.6%
≤30d 32 +7.6% -2.6% 47% 47% +23.6%
≤90d 32 +7.6% -2.6% 47% 47% +23.6%
all 44 -0.6% -10.1% 45% 45% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 45% +13.9%
10% -18.7% 39% +3.0%
15% -26.5% 32% -7.0%
20% -33.8% 27% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$46 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage213d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $129 +$106 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$74 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$46 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$41 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $127 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$47 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $204 −$146 -72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $511 +$878 +172%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 +$294 +286%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $243 −$180 -74%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$33 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$31 -61%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Dec 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Dec 06 $17 −$7 -42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 06 $81 −$20 -24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 06 $41 +$19 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $31 +$5 +16%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand P Dec 06 $10 +$16 +158%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand P Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $29 −$3 -12%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $20 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $22 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $19 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $235 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $177 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $250 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records