Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x15c5…47f6 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,531 (+5%) realized +$3,997 · open −$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%182W / 160L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day93.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -22.6% -30.0% 47% 47% -23.0%
≤30d 284 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 50% -15.4%
≤90d 342 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 50% -13.1%
all 342 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 50% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 50% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 46% -21.4%
15% -31.6% 39% -29.0%
20% -38.3% 28% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$181 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$607
Realized+$3,997
Unrealized−$466
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses182 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)342 / 344
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$221
Trades / day93.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 65¢ 76¢ $522 $602 +$80 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $551 $5 −$547 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $469 +$118 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $473 +$329 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $347 +$171 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $107 +$46 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $211 +$181 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $293 −$293 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $368 +$126 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $568 +$432 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $259 +$163 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $249 +$96 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $353 −$353 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $259 +$176 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $299 +$582 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $193 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $292 −$292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $579 −$579 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $150 +$240 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $84 +$28 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $157 −$80 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$71 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $363 −$363 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $367 +$240 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $205 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $534 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $105 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $390 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $253 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $60 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $180 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $469 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $162 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $60 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.76 · official $606.76 (match) · 3500 history records