Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15c6…91d7 crypto 592 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$822 (-6%) realized −$822 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%568W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$11
14 days−$151
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$304
other 8% +$21
finance 8% +$13
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 341 -3.0% -12.3% 95% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 592 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -11.4%
all 592 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -11.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses568 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)592 / 592
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 592 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 15h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $29 17h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 17h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records