Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15c8…d2d0 sports 58 markets active 3h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$42,039 (+11%) realized +$54,012 · open −$11,973
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$6,855per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$213,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6,432
14 days+$6,432
30 days+$56,797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$16,282
sports 37% +$59,967
world 0% −$124
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +180.3% +153.6% 100% 100% +153.6%
≤30d 8 +33.5% +20.8% 100% 38% +31.3%
≤90d 21 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 52% +23.0%
all 50 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 42% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 42% +20.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 24% +8.9%
15% -33.3% 22% -1.7%
20% -39.8% 14% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,292 vs −$661 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.2 per $1 lost it wins $5.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$213,085
Realized+$54,012
Unrealized−$11,973
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions8
Markets (closed)50 / 58
History coverage160d
Avg bet$6,855
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $75,026 $68,732 −$6,294 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52,249 $41,385 −$10,863 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $30,156 $30,728 +$572 (+2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28,482 $30,480 +$1,998 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22,838 $26,663 +$3,825 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $13,127 $11,555 −$1,571 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,895 $2,926 +$32 (+1%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ $285 $615 +$330 (+116%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,568 +$6,432 +180%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5) May 22 $75 $0 +0%
Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5) May 22 $79 $0 +0%
Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5 May 22 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? May 22 $7,762 +$507 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $114,161 +$49,853 +44%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Taro Daniel May 18 $7 +$3 +34%
La Bisbal: Emiliana Arango vs Daria Kasatkina Apr 28 $4 +$1 +22%
Cagliari: Aleksandar Vukic vs Marcos Giron Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Apr 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Madrid Open: Xinyu Wang vs Laura Samson Apr 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Madrid Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Tereza Valentova Apr 22 $3 +$2 +44%
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimova Apr 22 $8 +$2 +22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $4,350 +$650 +15%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1,800 +$136 +8%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $10,611 +$2,173 +20%
Menorca: Alex Martinez vs Tiago Pereira Apr 07 $37 +$32 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 30 $1,757 +$1,688 +96%
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $6,973 −$6,973 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $71 −$9 -13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $2,376 −$2,376 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 02 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $549 +$78 +14%
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $207 +$793 +384%
Will JD Vance clap between 30–39 times during the State of the Union? Feb 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will JD Vance clap between 20–29 times during the State of the Union? Feb 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $548 −$381 -70%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimo Feb 21 $5,432 +$3,632 +67%
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw? Feb 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-01-30? Feb 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Feb 17 $15 $0 -2%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 17 $28 +$12 +45%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 17 $2,185 +$1,076 +49%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? Feb 06 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $801 −$801 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic Jan 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Pharco FC vs. ZED FC end in a draw? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-01-23? Jan 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 30 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffs Jan 30 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs magic (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jan 30 $5 +$1 +22%
Zuffa Boxing 1: Diaz vs. Gutierrez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 27 $9 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs 33 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group St Jan 27 $1,650 +$1,650 +100%
College Football: Undefeated 15-0 team? Jan 20 $183 +$17 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,160 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,824 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $854 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $275 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,330 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,416 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14,962 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $516 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15,940 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8,202 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24,437 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8,099 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13,756 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $870 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,678 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20,550 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20,534 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20,534 13d
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ignacio Buse 98¢ $5 26d
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ignacio Buse 98¢ $5 26d
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 26d
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,700 26d
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $267 27d
Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5) BUY Southampton FC 49¢ $79 27d
Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $139 27d
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5) BUY Southampton FC 49¢ $75 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213,085.30 · official $213,085.30 (match) · 355 history records