Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15c9…dfd3
crypto · 1547 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$151 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$255 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses937 / 610
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1547 / 1547
History coverage45d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 1547 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$87
14 days−$359
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$240
sports 4% +$4
other 1% −$11
world 1% −$7
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 -6.1% -15.0% 63% 58% -12.7%
≤30d 1432 -8.7% -17.4% 59% 57% -14.2%
≤90d 1547 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 59% -12.6%
all 1547 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 59% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 59% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 52% -20.9%
15% -29.9% 47% -28.6%
20% -36.8% 33% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records