Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x15c9…296b crypto 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,398 (-6%) realized −$2,432 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%259W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$311
7 days−$259
14 days−$259
30 days−$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,220
sports 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -18.1% -25.9% 52% 50% -15.8%
≤30d 166 -14.8% -22.9% 51% 49% -25.6%
≤90d 481 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 45% -17.2%
all 481 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 45% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 45% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 37% -25.1%
15% -33.5% 28% -32.3%
20% -40.0% 22% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$55 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized−$2,432
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses259 / 222
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)481 / 482
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Up 85¢ 96¢ $285 $319 +$34 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$61 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $91 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $76 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$28 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$39 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $111 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$17 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $137 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.86 · official $282.13 · 3500 history records