Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15c9…854b sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-10%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%10W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$25
14 days−$86
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$9
other 48% −$57
crypto 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.7% -16.5% 26% 26% -18.5%
≤30d 40 -7.6% -16.4% 25% 25% -20.7%
≤90d 40 -7.6% -16.4% 25% 25% -20.7%
all 40 -7.6% -16.4% 25% 25% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 25% -20.7%
10% -24.4% 25% -28.3%
15% -31.7% 25% -35.2%
20% -38.4% 22% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $4 +$6 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Raphinha: 2+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$27 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$49 +344%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$15 +165%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 09 $22 −$21 -97%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $42 +$28 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $4 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $5 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $5 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $4 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 27h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $41 3d
Raphinha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $6 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 14¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $11 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.18 · official $47.18 (match) · 58 history records