Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15cb…fdfd crypto 101 markets active 4d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$535 (-21%) realized −$369 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%39W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$288
14 days−$279
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$381
crypto 44% −$164
politics 1% −$29
sports 1% +$14
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 50% -34.7%
≤30d 17 +1.7% -8.0% 59% 53% -27.8%
≤90d 73 -41.4% -47.0% 29% 25% -32.0%
all 100 +9.3% -1.1% 39% 34% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 34% -24.9%
10% -10.6% 29% -32.0%
15% -19.2% 22% -38.6%
20% -27.1% 19% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses39 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage134d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 73¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $326 −$313 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $287 +$32 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $59 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $70 −$25 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $60 −$13 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 +$6 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $150 +$7 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$26 +51%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $23 +$12 +49%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $34 +$26 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $29 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 2? May 11 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 11 $21 −$10 -46%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 1? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 11 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 2? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 2? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on February 2? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 11 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 11 $18 −$11 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 11 $12 −$7 -57%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 31? May 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 11 $17 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $167 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 74¢ $319 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 79¢ $319 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 71¢ $287 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 76¢ $14 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $19 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $36 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $45 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 62¢ $47 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $48 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $61 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $16 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $15 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $37 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $97 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $90 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $50 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 79¢ $60 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 98¢ $76 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $29 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $20 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 65¢ $50 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $60 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 54¢ $28 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $13 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.34 (match) · 305 history records