Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15cd…4e29 crypto 149 markets active 4d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$161 (-18%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%77W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$121
crypto 37% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -17.9% -25.7% 41% 41% -12.3%
≤30d 38 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 37% -28.9%
≤90d 149 -16.4% -24.3% 52% 46% -26.4%
all 149 -16.4% -24.3% 52% 46% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 46% -26.4%
10% -31.6% 34% -33.4%
15% -38.2% 22% -39.9%
20% -44.3% 17% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses77 / 72
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage69d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +223%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 08 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 39¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 15¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 78¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 24¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 59¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 88¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 72¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 72¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 72¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 12¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 13¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 7¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 571 history records