Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15ce…0350 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
other 15% +$1
crypto 5% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.0%
all 43 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $84 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$3 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $43 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Dec 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $4 $0 -4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 2 at 5 PM ET? Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Apr 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $3 $0 -18%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 04 $1 +$1 +56%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $18 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 14 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $17 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.26 · official $45.26 (match) · 155 history records