Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x15ce…8b53 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$119 (+11%) realized +$131 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%29W / 17L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$116
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$150
sports 10% −$58
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.8% -3.4% 66% 62% +11.4%
≤30d 46 +15.2% +4.2% 63% 61% +2.8%
≤90d 46 +15.2% +4.2% 63% 61% +2.8%
all 46 +15.2% +4.2% 63% 61% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 61% +2.8%
10% -5.8% 52% -7.0%
15% -14.9% 52% -16.0%
20% -23.2% 35% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses29 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)46 / 57
History coverage13d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$12 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -99%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$23 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$13 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $23 +$14 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$50 +142%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$15 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$10 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$7 +50%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$61 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$7 +105%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 29m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 30m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 30m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 32m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 33m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 34m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 36m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $57 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 2d
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.56 · official $204.36 (match) · 114 history records