Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15cf…d12c
crypto · 427 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$746 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$746 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$746
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses351 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)582 / 427
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day989.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 582 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$951
7 days−$746
14 days−$746
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 43¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+130%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$1 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 582 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 3% -15.1%
≤30d 582 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 3% -15.1%
≤90d 582 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 3% -15.1%
all 582 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 3% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover989.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 3% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 2% -23.2%
15% -37.8% 2% -30.6%
20% -43.9% 2% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records