Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15cf…0de6 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 222L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 23% −$20
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$2
economics 4% −$4
world 4% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage127d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $574 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $412 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $306 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $488 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $131 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $524 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 4h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 6h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 10h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 17h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 18h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $49 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $49 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $49 26h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $49 28h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 32h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 45h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 47h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1306 history records