Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
15 0x15d3…6649 world 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% $0
other 19% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 24 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage470d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $13 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $35 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $9 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $11 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $11 $0 -2%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $34 5m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 7h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $5 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $14 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $9 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $3 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $3 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $19 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records