Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x15d4…6ddd politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$442 (-0%) realized +$5,800 · open −$6,242
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2,688per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$20,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$70
14 days−$70
30 days+$5,533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$2,227
other 1% +$1,114
sports 1% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 +19.2% +7.9% 62% 50% +10.1%
≤90d 20 -4.1% -13.2% 55% 35% +7.9%
all 30 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 37% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 37% -0.0%
10% -22.9% 27% -9.6%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 17% -18.3%
20% -37.2% 10% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,212) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
47.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$664 vs −$383 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$20,326
Realized+$5,800
Unrealized−$6,242
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$2,688
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 95¢ $7,111 $13,447 +$6,336 (+89%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,821 $4,074 +$253 (+7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $2,012 $2,012 +$1 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 5¢ $7,111 $775 −$6,336 (-89%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $146 $13 −$134 (-91%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$23 (-94%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 22 $0 −$70 -20305%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,332 +$1,114 +84%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Jun 01 $382 +$136 +36%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 01 $2,639 +$3,150 +119%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $6,818 +$2,670 +39%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $6,026 −$1,582 -26%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $4,680 +$174 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $3,976 −$60 -2%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 27 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 27 $84 +$6 +8%
Will PH win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repr Apr 27 $345 +$6 +2%
Will PH win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Apr 27 $307 +$47 +15%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 13 $155 −$40 -26%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $343 −$151 -44%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $778 +$235 +30%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne Apr 09 $1,052 −$7 -1%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in Mar 31 $278 +$68 +24%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $122 −$55 -45%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $254 −$1 -0%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Mar 23 $4,507 +$1,183 +26%
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Mar 23 $110 +$7 +6%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $3,212 −$911 -28%
Will Arsenal finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Mar 22 $467 +$98 +21%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 22 $95 −$41 -43%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Mar 20 $903 +$493 +55%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 20 $776 −$201 -26%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 10 $8,003 +$1,239 +16%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 10 $3,544 −$2,210 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 98¢ $353 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 99¢ $651 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 98¢ $1,009 1h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,325.88 · official $20,325.88 (match) · 3500 history records