Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15d4…b79f crypto 1214 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,642 (-5%) realized −$1,642 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%924W / 289L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$915
7 days+$596
14 days−$350
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$932
crypto 25% −$624
other 10% −$125
politics 1% −$105
world 1% +$103
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +45.6% +31.8% 67% 61% +16.4%
≤30d 42 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 48% -17.5%
≤90d 311 -46.7% -51.8% 28% 27% -18.0%
all 1213 -1.8% -11.2% 76% 43% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -14.5%
10% -19.7% 26% -22.7%
15% -27.5% 11% -30.1%
20% -34.6% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$38 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses924 / 289
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1213 / 1214
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1213 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$22 +215%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$67 +66%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$32 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$74 +59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $62 +$38 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $200 +$154 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,003 +$501 +50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$54 +524%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $101 −$24 -24%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $254 −$254 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $150 +$90 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 +$46 +46%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $22 +$8 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $11 +$9 +76%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 04 $51 +$41 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $374 −$374 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$42 +83%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $46 −$16 -35%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $203 +$153 +75%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 18 $111 −$5 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $101 +$54 +53%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 16 $203 +$154 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $112 −$112 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 14 $9 +$11 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $43 56m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $169 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $20 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $20 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $1 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 23¢ $7 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $62 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $85 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $34 27h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 0¢ $0 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 89¢ $1 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 89¢ $177 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $1 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $175 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $37 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records