Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15d5…8903 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$240 (-13%) realized −$238 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$214
14 days−$214
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$236
sports 21% +$53
crypto 9% −$41
world 2% −$26
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -21.2% -28.7% 24% 21% -23.0%
≤30d 122 -23.6% -30.9% 25% 22% -23.3%
≤90d 132 -24.2% -31.4% 26% 23% -23.6%
all 132 -24.2% -31.4% 26% 23% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 23% -23.6%
10% -37.9% 23% -30.9%
15% -43.9% 23% -37.6%
20% -49.4% 22% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$238
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 98
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage47d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +58%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $23 −$2 -8%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -84%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $7 −$3 -44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $340 −$155 -46%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $9 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 −$12 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 18 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $137 −$135 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $144 +$200 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $9 +$16 +170%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $39 +$88 +226%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 58¢ $31 3h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 28¢ $3 19h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 0¢ $0 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 20h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $3 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 27¢ $5 21h
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 21h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $3 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 21h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 28¢ $5 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 0¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $153 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $176 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $187 27h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.66 · official $45.66 (match) · 249 history records