Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15d6…1e62 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 48L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$14
other 20% −$8
politics 14% −$1
sports 8% +$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 3% -8.8%
all 70 -2.6% -11.9% 31% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.3% 1% -17.9%
15% -28.0% 1% -25.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage533d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $61 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $196 +$3 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -24%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $44 +$2 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $31 +$6 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $67 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $76 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $90 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $106 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $50 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $12 +$5 +45%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $23 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $35 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $51 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $63 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2 $0 -6%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $68 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $60 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $60 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $46 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $36 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $59 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $61 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $61 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.03 · official $38.30 (match) · 311 history records