Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x15d9…9909 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$5
crypto 9% +$1
sports 2% −$2
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage546d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $48 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $43 $0 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 13 $30 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $15 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +3%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $5,583 −$6 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 99¢ $48 31d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 62d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 99¢ $14 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $43 181d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $21 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 212d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $8 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 242d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $34 242d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $4 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $43 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 365d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.26 · official $59.26 (match) · 116 history records