Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e1…1b3d crypto 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$464 (-4%) realized −$445 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate31%105W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$198
14 days−$274
30 days−$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$20
other 19% −$253
finance 15% −$42
crypto 12% −$68
politics 6% −$67
sports 3% −$45
weather 2% −$9
tech 2% −$17
culture 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -20.9% -28.5% 14% 6% -22.7%
≤30d 174 -13.9% -22.1% 22% 8% -13.9%
≤90d 193 -12.3% -20.6% 25% 8% -13.3%
all 340 -6.8% -15.6% 31% 12% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 12% -13.0%
10% -23.7% 7% -21.3%
15% -31.1% 5% -28.9%
20% -37.8% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$445
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses105 / 235
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions15
Markets (closed)340 / 356
History coverage158d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 68¢ 96¢ $34 $48 +$14 (+41%)
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 88¢ $23 $31 +$7 (+31%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 54¢ 82¢ $11 $16 +$6 (+53%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 44¢ $19 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 48¢ $15 $10 −$6 (-37%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 18¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Yes 44¢ 11¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+168%)
Will Elliot Anderson stay at Nottingham Forest? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential Jun 24 $25 −$7 -29%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 Jun 24 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 24 $39 −$1 -3%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Jun 24 $22 −$1 -4%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 23 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $29 +$4 +13%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedi Jun 23 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Jun 23 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$17 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $104 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 22 $14 −$12 -82%
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $13 −$9 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 −$6 -35%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 22 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 21 $36 −$2 -7%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $16 −$4 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $47 −$1 -2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 Jun 21 $14 −$12 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 20 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $44 −$30 -68%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by mor Jun 19 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -6%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF Jun 19 $26 −$3 -11%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 19 $20 −$12 -60%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $13 −$2 -14%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 18 $16 −$5 -34%
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Jun 18 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Jun 18 $40 −$6 -16%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 18 $28 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL No 46¢ $18 29m
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY No 63¢ $25 33m
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $38 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $38 5h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $11 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $7 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $8 5h
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 6h
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $38 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $39 6h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 7h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $22 7h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $3 16h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 24h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 51¢ $10 26h
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedi SELL No 30¢ $17 29h
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedi BUY No 31¢ $19 29h
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? SELL No 62¢ $37 29h
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? BUY No 63¢ $38 29h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 35¢ $21 30h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 36¢ $22 30h
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $14 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $29 31h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $43 31h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $104 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.52 · official $158.26 (match) · 1561 history records