trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 28 | $30 | +$4 | +14% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 20 | $27 | +$4 | +17% |
| Senators vs. Red Wings | Apr 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 09 | $21 | +$4 | +20% |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 26 | $16 | +$3 | +20% |
| Raptors vs. Suns | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 | Mar 23 | $93 | +$90 | +96% |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | Mar 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Panthers vs. Kraken | Mar 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | Mar 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers | Mar 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Saint Louis Billikens | Mar 14 | $2 | +$1 | +35% |
| Mavericks vs. Grizzlies | Mar 13 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 | Mar 12 | $1 | +$1 | +96% |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in January 2026? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +14.3% | +3.4% | 100% | 100% | +3.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -16.6% | -24.6% | 62% | 62% | +39.1% |
| all | 16 | -21.9% | -29.3% | 56% | 50% | +35.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.3% | 50% | +35.0% |
| 10% | -36.1% | 25% | +22.1% |
| 15% | -42.3% | 19% | +10.3% |
| 20% | -47.9% | 19% | -0.5% |