Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15e3…cc32 sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$206 (-4%) realized −$204 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%46W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$329
7 days−$94
14 days−$249
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$285
sports 29% −$78
crypto 4% +$109
economics 1% +$21
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 50% -16.2%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 69% -14.1%
≤90d 17 +12.7% +1.9% 76% 76% -12.9%
all 82 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 55% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 55% -13.9%
10% -21.4% 49% -22.1%
15% -29.0% 40% -29.7%
20% -36.0% 33% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$48 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses46 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage591d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 85¢ 84¢ $262 $260 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $334 −$329 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $347 +$484 +140%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $306 +$33 +11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $288 −$282 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $180 +$131 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $210 +$154 +73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 +$39 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $545 −$534 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $450 +$54 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $205 +$60 +29%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $131 +$32 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 08 $18 +$7 +36%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 23 $24 +$12 +50%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 15 $17 +$5 +29%
Hawks vs. Heat May 15 $24 +$13 +52%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 12 $17 +$12 +70%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 29 $59 +$15 +25%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Mar 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Magic vs. Bucks Mar 15 $71 +$37 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 08 $39 +$45 +113%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $92 −$46 -50%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 05 $39 +$11 +28%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 25 $21 +$21 +96%
Flames vs. Sharks Dec 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Dec 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 26 $15 +$14 +89%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Pistons vs. Grizzlies Nov 12 $16 +$9 +56%
Bruins vs. Senators Nov 03 $12 +$7 +59%
Heat vs. Magic Oct 27 $17 +$5 +30%
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Oct 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Louisiana Tech vs. Kennesaw State Oct 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? Oct 01 $9 +$7 +70%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? Sep 24 $14 +$8 +54%
Washington State vs. North Texas Sep 17 $9 +$4 +49%
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Sep 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? Sep 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Phillies vs. Reds Aug 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Mets vs. Pirates Aug 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers Aug 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Aug 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Astros vs. Marlins Aug 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $263 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $334 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $347 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $306 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $288 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $180 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $210 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $250 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $545 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $450 12d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $205 15d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $131 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $15 19d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $18 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $24 44d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $17 70d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Heat 65¢ $24 76d
Pistons vs. 76ers BUY Pistons 58¢ $17 84d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Tennessee Volunteers 24¢ $25 90d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $59 98d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Blackhawks 34¢ $43 105d
Magic vs. Bucks BUY Magic 66¢ $71 111d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 47¢ $39 120d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $36 129d
Heat vs. Celtics BUY Heat 32¢ $24 141d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $46 141d
Hornets vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 59¢ $30 142d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $92 142d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY T1 78¢ $39 154d
Suns vs. Heat BUY Heat 51¢ $21 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.26 · official $260.26 (match) · 149 history records