Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e5…9749 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$577 (-9%) realized −$578 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%57W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$104
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1,056
sports 10% −$284
world 10% +$583
crypto 8% +$93
economics 8% −$455
politics 6% +$34
tech 6% +$92
weather 5% −$17
culture 3% +$80
finance 2% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 62% +22.0%
≤30d 35 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 57% +23.8%
≤90d 35 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 57% +23.8%
all 161 -15.5% -23.6% 35% 30% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 30% -15.9%
10% -30.9% 29% -23.9%
15% -37.5% 25% -31.3%
20% -43.7% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$27 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$578
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses57 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)161 / 172
History coverage161d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 53¢ 94¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+80%)
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? Yes 43¢ 84¢ $12 $24 +$12 (+97%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 34¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30? Databricks 57¢ 73¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-68%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 9¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes 43¢ 23¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 20¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 55¢ 3¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$21 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any player break the record for lowest score in a round at the 20 Jun 19 $41 +$27 +65%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 17 $7 +$7 +96%
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $14 +$12 +82%
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Jun 17 $16 +$10 +62%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Thomas Meunier be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -94%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arthur Theate be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$33 +160%
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$8 -42%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 09 $41 +$25 +60%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Tim Cook say "Tool" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $58 +$38 +66%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 07 $18 −$16 -88%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Mar 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? Mar 03 $171 −$121 -71%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $158 −$157 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 01 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Feb 25 $781 −$550 -70%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 25 $2 +$6 +300%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $49 −$35 -72%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 24 $112 +$316 +282%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 12h
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 12h
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.61 · official $98.61 (match) · 598 history records