Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x15e5…d3fe sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16,429 (+57%) realized +$16,435 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$1,255per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,935
7 days−$1,935
14 days+$12,148
30 days+$12,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$16,652
other 6% −$1,656
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -99.8% -99.9% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤30d 18 -23.4% -30.7% 22% 22% +30.2%
≤90d 22 +2.5% -7.3% 32% 32% +37.8%
all 22 +2.5% -7.3% 32% 32% +37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 32% +37.8%
10% -16.2% 32% +24.6%
15% -24.3% 32% +12.6%
20% -31.7% 32% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,536) neutral
Persistence
early +105% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,498 vs −$1,099 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$16,435
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,255
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi Xing Dao Chen 28¢ 26¢ $121 $115 −$6 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $741 −$724 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $203 −$198 -97%
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $366 −$366 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $617 −$617 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,741 −$1,407 -81%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,109 −$2,109 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8,087 −$7,538 -93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,191 +$19,527 +376%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $508 +$523 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3,055 +$2,603 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,536 +$5,959 +388%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $304 +$222 +73%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $102 +$102 +101%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $635 +$2,550 +402%
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $2 1h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $2 1h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $4 1h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $0 1h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $0 1h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $7 1h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $0 2h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 28¢ $102 2h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 11¢ $103 2h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $0 2h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $0 2h
ITF Wuning: Xing Dao Chen vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Xing Dao Chen 27¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $12 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $60 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 13¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 13¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 13¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 13¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 13¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 13¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 13¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 23¢ $113 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 32¢ $102 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.75 · official $116.75 (match) · 103 history records