Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x15e9…26be sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,950 (+12%) realized +$16,736 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%72W / 96L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$2,204est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,330
7 days+$8,141
14 days+$10,856
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$17,712
other 3% −$1,356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 48% +5.0%
≤30d 151 -11.2% -19.6% 38% 37% -9.5%
≤90d 168 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 42% +1.2%
all 168 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 42% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 42% +1.2%
10% -17.5% 42% -8.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 42% -17.4%
20% -32.8% 42% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,117 vs −$670 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1,690
Realized+$16,736
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses72 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,204
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage46d
Avg bet$814
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 48¢ 60¢ $1,176 $1,458 +$282 (+24%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 42¢ 32¢ $300 $232 −$68 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $900 +$975 +108%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $900 −$900 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,036 +$1,964 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1,019 −$1,002 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $307 +$633 +206%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $304 +$346 +114%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,036 +$2,514 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,000 +$2,000 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $823 −$810 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $402 +$578 +144%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $800 −$800 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $450 +$550 +122%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,500 +$1,500 +100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $418 −$418 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,750 +$1,750 +100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $840 +$1,160 +138%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $929 −$912 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,590 +$1,410 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $2,438 +$2,162 +89%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,325 +$1,175 +89%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1,006 +$8 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $565 −$560 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $1,508 −$1,504 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1,533 +$1,267 +83%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) Jun 12 $76 +$62 +82%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2,000 +$3,000 +150%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $410 −$404 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $403 −$403 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $408 −$399 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $417 −$410 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,270 +$930 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $24 +$21 +89%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $1,025 −$1,023 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 10 $1,500 +$1,000 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 48¢ $585 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 48¢ $609 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $29 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $83 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $13 6h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $36 7h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $42 7h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $35 7h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $1 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $4 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $5 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $4 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $29 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $7 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $11 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $900 9h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $307 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $407 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $22 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $91 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $53 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $93 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $43 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $34 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,690.10 · official $1,763.60 · 1268 history records