Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15eb…3c3e crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+12%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day69.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 46% -3.6%
≤30d 52 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 46% -3.6%
≤90d 52 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 46% -3.6%
all 52 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 46% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 46% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 38% -12.8%
15% -19.6% 38% -21.3%
20% -27.5% 35% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$23 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $69 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $69 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$28 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$31 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$36 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$12 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$20 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$6 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$20 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$33 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $71 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records