Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x15ec…267d sports 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40,282 (+11%) realized +$60,120 · open −$19,838
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%139W / 167L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,136per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$2,501est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$26,285
other 44% −$63,298
tech 5% +$3,268
crypto 1% +$322
finance 1% −$1,068
world 0% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -6.3% -15.2% 43% 43% -18.5%
≤30d 302 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 44% -13.2%
≤90d 305 -3.5% -12.6% 45% 45% -13.1%
all 306 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 45% -13.0%
10% -20.9% 43% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.6% 39% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 34% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$934) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$884 vs −$825 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$5,043
Realized+$60,120
Unrealized−$19,838
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses139 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,501
Open positions4
Markets (closed)306 / 310
History coverage105d
Avg bet$1,136
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1,959 $1,974 +$15 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1,908 $1,925 +$17 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $4,924 $1,123 −$3,801 (-77%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $16,089 $21 −$16,069 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,934 +$2,066 +107%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $866 +$634 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48,056 −$47,696 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $3,233 −$3,227 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $740 −$740 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $4,453 −$4,400 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $500 −$500 -100%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $1,231 −$1,230 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4,500 +$500 +11%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $352 −$352 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,484 +$516 +35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $945 +$555 +59%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $510 −$256 -50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,920 +$1,080 +56%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,028 +$1,872 +92%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,566 −$1,970 -77%
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $292 −$289 -99%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $495 −$488 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $999 +$1,040 +104%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,703 +$1,309 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $330 +$420 +127%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $795 +$705 +89%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $442 −$433 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $735 −$735 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $7,570 +$2,930 +39%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1,600 +$900 +56%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,260 +$740 +59%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,640 +$1,360 +52%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $4,032 +$3,168 +79%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $520 −$520 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,274 −$1,260 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,852 +$3,167 +36%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $500 +$500 +100%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $117 +$50 +43%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,050 −$404 -38%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,998 −$484 -24%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $322 −$178 -55%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $720 −$720 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $408 −$408 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2,120 −$2,120 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $260 −$260 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $32 +$108 +335%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $49 +$239 +488%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,721 +$1,959 +114%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $280 +$420 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $5,048 29m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 46m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 46m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $668 47m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $675 47m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 47m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $658 47m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $701 47m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $560 47m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $924 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,112 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $92 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,233 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $288 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $42 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $308 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $8,246 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,222 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $202 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $242 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,042.89 · official $5,043.23 (match) · 2544 history records