Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f4…ee73 sports 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,020 (+67%) realized +$969 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%43W / 100L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$203
14 days−$189
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,143
sports 49% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -23.2% -30.6% 32% 32% -51.0%
≤30d 63 -15.4% -23.4% 35% 35% -35.4%
≤90d 138 -28.6% -35.4% 28% 28% -29.9%
all 143 -14.2% -22.3% 30% 29% +55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 29% +55.9%
10% -29.8% 29% +40.9%
15% -36.6% 26% +27.3%
20% -42.8% 24% +14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +72% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$6 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$969
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses43 / 100
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage93d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $166 $209 +$42 (+25%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 15¢ 23¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+57%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 59¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $16 +$4 +25%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $11 +$3 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$13 +208%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +214%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +63%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$8 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $3 +$12 +389%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 −$4 -94%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 −$22 -94%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +149%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 +$4 +195%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 10¢ $5 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $20 13m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 35¢ $5 26m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $11 42m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $11 43m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 33¢ $12 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 27¢ $15 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 11¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 42¢ $14 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $5 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 23¢ $10 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $10 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $10 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 11¢ $5 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 3¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $9 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 34¢ $14 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 18¢ $11 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $11 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.41 · official $233.41 (match) · 416 history records