Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
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15 0x15f6…e3f8 politics 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$141 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%108W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$805
14 days−$372
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$136
other 17% +$245
world 8% −$409
tech 8% +$16
sports 6% −$196
culture 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -43.5% -48.8% 26% 15% -48.5%
≤30d 173 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 29% -13.7%
≤90d 240 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 28% -12.8%
all 240 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 28% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 28% -12.8%
10% -25.6% 20% -21.1%
15% -32.8% 14% -28.8%
20% -39.4% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$3,498
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses108 / 132
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions128
Markets (closed)240 / 368
History coverage54d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 128 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $260 $288 +$28 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 68¢ $51 $122 +$70 (+138%)
Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $84 $92 +$8 (+9%)
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $96 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $79 $90 +$11 (+14%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 78¢ 68¢ $99 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 52¢ 83¢ $52 $83 +$31 (+60%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Yes 26¢ 65¢ $27 $66 +$40 (+150%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $61 $66 +$5 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-06 House seat? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $61 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 28¢ $83 $51 −$32 (-38%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-10 House seat? Yes 82¢ 93¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+13%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+30%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+13%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? Yes 44¢ 62¢ $34 $47 +$14 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -93%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$53 +459%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$36 -86%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 18 $120 +$12 +10%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 18 $114 −$8 -7%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $97 +$13 +14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will David Atchley be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 15 $184 −$150 -82%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 15 $471 −$427 -91%
Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Jeff Gunter be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tera Anderson be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aury Nagy be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FULL SENSE win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Clough be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $148 −$111 -75%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 14 $156 +$12 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 14 $154 −$13 -8%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$14 +134%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $41 +$10 +24%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$2 +18%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -18%
Will XLG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 -5%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -34%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $39 +$41 +103%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $72 +$8 +12%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $164 +$29 +18%
Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 10 $10 +$64 +624%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $47 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 32¢ $1 46m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $60 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 1h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 63¢ $72 1h
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $74 1h
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat? BUY Yes 89¢ $59 2h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 2h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $70 2h
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 2h
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 2h
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 2h
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 2h
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 2h
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 2h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $23 7h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,498.10 · official $3,498.15 (match) · 1001 history records