Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f7…ba2b world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$16
sports 23% −$1
other 19% +$7
politics 15% +$2
culture 5% +$2
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 30 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 42 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 77 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 52
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage268d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $158 −$6 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $144 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $127 −$2 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $162 −$4 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $77 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $78 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $158 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $174 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $80 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $106 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $87 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $93 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $71 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $407 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $57 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $513 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $682 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $620 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $680 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $160 +$2 +1%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $66 +$7 +11%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 11 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $26 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 18 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $27 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $75 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $75 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $76 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $70 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $69 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $76 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $76 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $76 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $76 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $76 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $76 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $24 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records