Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f9…5590 crypto 780 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (479 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$49 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate74%576W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day479.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (479 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 779 -3.6% -12.7% 74% 2% -10.5%
≤30d 779 -3.6% -12.7% 74% 2% -10.5%
≤90d 779 -3.6% -12.7% 74% 2% -10.5%
all 779 -3.6% -12.7% 74% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover479.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 2% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 2% -19.1%
15% -28.7% 2% -26.9%
20% -35.7% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses576 / 203
Open positions1
Markets (closed)779 / 780
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day479.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 98¢ 68¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.76 · official $15.30 · 2591 history records