Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f9…0411 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-16%) realized −$114 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$19
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$143
other 14% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.3% -18.8% 56% 56% -13.3%
≤30d 25 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 48% -18.7%
≤90d 25 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 48% -18.7%
all 25 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 48% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 48% -18.7%
10% -31.0% 48% -26.5%
15% -37.7% 44% -33.6%
20% -43.8% 40% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage12d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jovic 55¢ 52¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-4%)
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Grenier (+1.5) Faria 56¢ 54¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 64¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $49 +$36 +73%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +55%
Borges vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $56 −$56 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 +$24 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $26 +$7 +28%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $34 +$16 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $34 +$23 +67%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$28 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Morocco to score first vs. Scotlan Jun 20 $25 +$15 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$1 -12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $8 +$4 +52%
Set Handicap: Prozorova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $10 −$1 -13%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $65 −$64 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $47 +$28 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $25 +$22 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Grenier (+1.5) BUY Faria 56¢ $29 1h
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Jovic 55¢ $56 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $85 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 57¢ $49 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 7h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 16h
Borges vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 63¢ $56 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $33 27h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $30 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 78¢ $26 32h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $34 46h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $34 46h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 57¢ $39 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Morocco to score first vs. Scotlan SELL 99¢ $39 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Morocco to score first vs. Scotlan BUY 61¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $7 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $9 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 38¢ $10 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $10 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $12 10d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $8 10d
Set Handicap: Prozorova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kraus 67¢ $9 10d
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 50¢ $9 11d
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.85 · official $104.85 (match) · 43 history records