Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f9…9a3d crypto 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-2%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%137W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$700
14 days−$465
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$773
other 1% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 44% -49.3%
≤30d 91 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 270 -13.4% -21.6% 51% 37% -15.2%
all 270 -13.4% -21.6% 51% 37% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 37% -15.2%
10% -29.1% 26% -23.3%
15% -36.0% 20% -30.7%
20% -42.2% 16% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses137 / 133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage58d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$30 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $61 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23? Jun 24 $134 −$128 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $34 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $311 −$281 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $204 +$110 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 21 $612 −$410 -67%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $659 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $298 +$245 +82%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $139 −$4 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $378 +$35 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $222 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $372 −$5 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $303 +$63 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $113 −$72 -63%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 07 $47 −$38 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 06 $393 +$19 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $320 −$43 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $278 +$26 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 04 $269 +$13 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? Jun 03 $251 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $144 −$82 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $105 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 60¢ $62 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 56¢ $60 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 59¢ $1 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 100¢ $45 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 100¢ $45 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 711 history records