Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15fb…9bc6
crypto · 818 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$331 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$248 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses484 / 395
Open positions0
Markets (closed)879 / 818
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day246.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 879 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$249
14 days−$248
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$4 -266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$3 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 574 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 9% -11.7%
≤30d 879 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 8% -11.0%
≤90d 879 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 8% -11.0%
all 879 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover246.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 8% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 2% -19.5%
15% -31.5% 1% -27.3%
20% -38.2% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records