Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15fb…252d
finance · 178 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
+$1,882 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,148 · open +$2,810
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58,601
Realized−$2,148
Unrealized+$2,810
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses94 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$887
Open positions9
Markets (closed)172 / 178
History coverage72d
Avg bet$2,654
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 9 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,185
7 days−$382
14 days−$4,876
30 days−$8,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 81¢ $49,717 $52,028 +$2,311 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 83¢ 90¢ $4,633 $5,027 +$394 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 97¢ $973 $1,078 +$105 (+11%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Up 41¢ 50¢ $382 $459 +$77 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 41¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%? Under 76¢ 1¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-98%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? No 15¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1,838 +$1,049 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1,218 +$1,135 +93%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $5,627 +$5,690 +101%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $101 +$158 +156%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $889 −$889 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $1,182 −$1,182 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $19,801 −$4,897 -25%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $2,084 +$12 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $2,325 +$5 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $345 +$21 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $50 +$70 +140%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 02 $9,527 +$371 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22? Jun 02 $772 −$719 -93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $1,328 −$1,328 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 02 $7,646 −$6,366 -83%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $570 +$430 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $77 +$45 +59%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3,324 +$2,977 +90%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28? May 28 $180 +$7 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $1,778 +$72 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $9,532 −$1,411 -15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $4,644 −$262 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $4,894 +$4,002 +82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15? May 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? May 21 $188 −$185 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $536 −$536 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 21 $1,291 +$466 +36%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 21 $3,276 −$2,922 -89%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 14? May 21 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 21 $860 −$753 -88%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 21 $1,477 −$1,196 -81%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15? May 21 $1,846 −$1,846 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? May 21 $2,252 −$2,120 -94%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $797 +$593 +74%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20? May 20 $1,022 +$322 +32%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $147 +$36 +24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $77 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $99 −$19 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $1,785 +$299 +17%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $1,798 +$1,199 +67%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14? May 14 $2,619 +$422 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$7,150
finance 29% −$20,778
sports 10% −$370
other 10% −$5,062
politics 5% +$41,923
crypto 5% −$7,957
tech 0% +$60
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $112 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $116 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $89 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 42¢ $63 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $2 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $922 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1,844 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 84¢ $1,866 14h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 16h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $157 17h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 18h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 20h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 100¢ $200 20h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 20h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 22h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 22h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $214 22h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 23h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 23h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,218 38h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $42 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $26 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $108 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $87 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,422 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? BUY No 15¢ $289 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? BUY No 15¢ $12 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 88¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.6% -30.0% 43% 29% -10.5%
≤30d 55 -15.9% -23.9% 51% 35% -16.7%
≤90d 172 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 25% -10.1%
all 172 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 25% -10.1%
10% -23.3% 19% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -30.7% 15% -26.5%
20% -37.5% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,601.06 · official $58,607.45 (match) · 3500 history records