Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x15fc…e2b0 sports 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$844 (+5%) realized +$953 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%59W / 66L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$756
7 days+$1,163
14 days+$1,189
30 days+$671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,116
other 32% −$779
crypto 2% +$69
tech 1% −$97
world 0% +$102
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +22.8% +11.1% 48% 45% +3.2%
≤30d 121 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 44% -1.4%
≤90d 125 +10.9% +0.4% 47% 42% -2.5%
all 125 +10.9% +0.4% 47% 42% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 42% -2.5%
10% -9.2% 38% -11.8%
15% -18.0% 33% -20.3%
20% -26.0% 32% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$88 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,007
Realized+$953
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses59 / 66
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions8
Markets (closed)125 / 133
History coverage55d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $402 $344 −$59 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $168 $163 −$5 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 74¢ $120 $145 +$25 (+20%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $140 $133 −$7 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 32¢ $120 $58 −$62 (-52%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $20 $24 +$5 (+23%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 68¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$18 +53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $133 +$192 +145%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $157 −$111 -70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $146 +$25 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $132 −$130 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $74 +$80 +108%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$90 +177%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,901 +$32 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$232 -76%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $112 +$177 +158%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $182 +$56 +31%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$20 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$46 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $427 −$299 -70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$55 +90%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $353 −$350 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $357 −$350 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$55 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $306 +$551 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $214 +$332 +155%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$16 +51%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$24 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $75 −$74 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $741 +$60 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 +$78 +244%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $31 −$4 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $503 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $121 7m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $121 49m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $143 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 83¢ $325 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $30 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $51 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $51 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 41¢ $43 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $133 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $56 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $9 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $81 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $171 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $132 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $131 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,006.91 · official $1,006.95 (match) · 343 history records