Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x15fc…f061 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$306 (+5%) realized +$261 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate68%166W / 79L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$21
14 days+$43
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$38
crypto 24% +$223
finance 21% +$1
other 9% +$12
politics 7% −$15
weather 2% −$3
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.3% -2.0% 71% 71% -1.6%
≤30d 144 +4.5% -5.5% 57% 39% -2.1%
≤90d 212 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 35% -5.3%
all 245 +2.4% -7.4% 68% 33% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 33% -5.6%
10% -16.3% 22% -14.6%
15% -24.3% 15% -22.9%
20% -31.8% 10% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses166 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)245 / 274
History coverage105d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 72¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 76¢ 83¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 83¢ 60¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 18¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $20 −$6 -32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$11 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 $0 -16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $3 +$2 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -14%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $71 −$6 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $21 −$1 -5%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 May 31 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 31 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -43%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $10 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on May 28? May 28 $10 +$1 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $20 −$5 -22%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 May 28 $5 +$3 +52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 May 28 $5 +$6 +109%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 +$4 +84%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 27 $5 $0 +7%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $10 +$2 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? May 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 26 $91 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $20 4h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 33h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 38h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 23¢ $1 41h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $30 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 57¢ $14 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $19 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $13 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 71¢ $10 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 74¢ $10 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 74¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 95¢ $112 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.53 · official $172.54 (match) · 589 history records