Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15fc…7e5c other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$369 (+0%) realized +$369 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,153per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$24
14 days−$27
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$68
other 36% −$58
sports 15% +$470
world 4% −$3
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$3
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -13.3% -21.5% 8% 2% -9.6%
all 121 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -19.2% 7% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 6% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,591) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$6 · ×5.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$814
Realized+$369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,153
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $814 $814 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,700 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,198 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $651 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,245 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,726 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,656 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,207 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 03 $685 +$1 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $908 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $679 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $5,317 −$7 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,264 −$5 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,753 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,553 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 02 $378 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 02 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $875 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,472 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,484 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,360 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,339 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3,715 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,343 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $418 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $439 7h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $440 9h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $651 27h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $651 29h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $847 30h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $814 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,363 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,365 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,671 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,673 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,555 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,557 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,552 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,555 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,371 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,372 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,275 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,277 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,350 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,081 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $908 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $814.14 · official $814.14 (match) · 351 history records