Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x15fe…74ba sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$65 (+12%) realized +$62 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip

Net edge+67%after slip

Net WR78%break-even

Win rate83%15W / 3L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$129

14 days+$233

30 days+$233

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +78%

net ROI/market (all)+67.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+50.9%	+36.6%	78%	78%	+44.2%
≤30d	18	+84.7%	+67.1%	83%	78%	+58.2%
≤90d	18	+84.7%	+67.1%	83%	78%	+58.2%
all	18	+84.7%	+67.1%	83%	78%	+58.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+67.1%	78%	+58.2%
10%	+51.1%	78%	+43.1%
15%	+36.5%	67%	+29.2%
20%	+23.1%	61%	+16.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +85% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +118% → late +51% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.3 per $1 lost it wins $6.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized+$62

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses15 / 3

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 28

History coverage10d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs	Mentality Monster	87¢	100¢	$40	$46	+$6 (+15%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	56¢	50¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Jun 26	$24	+$15	+60%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on	Jun 25	$24	+$15	+64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$20	+$15	+73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	Jun 23	$24	+$21	+85%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$32	+$33	+101%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$26	+$18	+70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$26	+$52	+206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$1	+9%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$8	+$21	+262%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$14	+$19	+134%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	Jun 18	$8	+$49	+596%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$20	+$5	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$14	+$6	+44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals	BUY St. Louis Cardinals	56¢	$30	1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast	BUY Mentality Monster	87¢	$40	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	63¢	$20	4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY	62¢	$24	17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY	38¢	$24	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-	BUY	55¢	$24	18h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U	BUY	34¢	$21	41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on	BUY	60¢	$24	41h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY	56¢	$20	2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Wi	BUY	39¢	$20	2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY	57¢	$20	3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	53¢	$24	3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$20	4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY	49¢	$32	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	57¢	$14	5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY	32¢	$26	5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY	58¢	$26	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	27¢	$10	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$5	7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$8	7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz	BUY	42¢	$14	7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	80¢	$20	8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$14	8d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	BUY Yes	14¢	$8	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$4	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$14	9d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$10	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.44 · official $73.44 (match) · 44 history records