Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1600…aca1 politics 15 markets active 7h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,638 (-25%) realized −$7,498 · open −$140
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,067per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$1,075
14 days−$3,473
30 days−$3,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$9,030
other 20% −$512
sports 20% +$1,524
economics 1% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +43.1% +29.5% 100% 50% +12.1%
≤30d 7 +2.7% -7.0% 57% 29% -23.8%
≤90d 14 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 29% -35.3%
all 14 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 29% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 29% -35.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 29% -41.5%
15% -39.4% 21% -47.1%
20% -45.3% 14% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$1,334 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$2,088
Realized−$7,498
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage279d
Avg bet$2,067
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2,228 $2,088 −$140 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3,340 +$118 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,158 +$957 +83%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $8,653 −$3,986 -46%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $2,469 −$1,280 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3,156 +$860 +27%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $3,297 −$141 -4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Madrid Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Blockx Apr 25 $865 −$856 -99%
Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud Apr 25 $594 +$270 +46%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 25 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 25 $489 −$489 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $302 +$292 +97%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $3,878 −$3,577 -92%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $229 −$47 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,287 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2,300 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,103 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1,155 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,158 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,218 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $900 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $325 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 18¢ $956 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $3 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $479 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $9 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $1,436 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 69¢ $5 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 69¢ $2,695 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 24¢ $727 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 74¢ $1,010 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 58¢ $1,033 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $4,016 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $3 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $3,153 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 67¢ $3,156 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,291 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 31¢ $3,297 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,087.74 · official $2,087.74 (match) · 87 history records