Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1601…4a84 politics 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-11%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$29
politics 19% −$9
economics 19% −$11
sports 11% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 0% 0% -21.5%
≤30d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 0% 0% -21.5%
≤90d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 0% 0% -21.5%
all 6 -10.7% -19.2% 0% 0% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -21.5%
10% -27.0% 0% -29.0%
15% -34.0% 0% -35.9%
20% -40.5% 0% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $36 −$5 -14%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 12 $36 −$4 -12%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 12 $72 −$11 -15%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 11 $193 −$29 -15%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 5d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $32 5d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $61 5d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $35 5d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 18¢ $36 5d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 5d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $93 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $64 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $24 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $40 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 6d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL No 94¢ $40 6d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 97¢ $39 6d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 97¢ $3 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records