Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1603…9bd2 world 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$3
other 28% $0
tech 6% +$1
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 5% -9.2%
all 56 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 4% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $97 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 +$4 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -31%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $44 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Aug 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $14 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 27m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $51 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $52 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 18h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $47 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $46 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $45 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $29 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $17 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $42 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.99 · official $36.99 (match) · 161 history records