Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1605…c707 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized −$56 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$775
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$397
sports 32% +$536
crypto 2% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
≤30d 13 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
≤90d 13 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 54% -6.1%
all 20 -2.0% -11.3% 45% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 45% -9.0%
10% -19.8% 45% -17.7%
15% -27.5% 45% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 40% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$97 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage198d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 60¢ $150 $197 +$47 (+32%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $150 $186 +$36 (+24%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 26¢ 28¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 +$105 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 +$145 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$105 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $127 +$220 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$398 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $355 −$350 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$138 +54%
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 06 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $100 +$75 +75%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Jan 17 $97 −$44 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 17 $6 +$17 +267%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 26¢ $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $152 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $122 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $51 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $308 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 81¢ $167 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $127 35h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 35h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $402 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $41 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $41 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 4d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $46 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 151d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 151d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 151d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 151d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $23 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.53 · official $438.55 (match) · 53 history records