Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1605…ad36 crypto 600 markets active 2d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$435 (-7%) realized −$435 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%247W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$140
14 days−$248
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$714
world 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -23.0% -30.3% 38% 36% -30.7%
≤30d 318 -16.4% -24.3% 43% 40% -20.8%
≤90d 600 -14.8% -22.9% 41% 38% -22.5%
all 600 -14.8% -22.9% 41% 38% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 38% -22.5%
10% -30.3% 34% -29.9%
15% -37.0% 30% -36.7%
20% -43.2% 26% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$435
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses247 / 353
Open positions0
Markets (closed)600 / 600
History coverage64d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 600 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$52 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$12 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1590 history records